[PAA-Discuss] FW: A Peace Strategy, 2010-2011

[Lee Loe]

tried to make this smaller but only succeeded a little bit. I think this is
very important! Tom Hayden for Secy of State! Yeah. Lee Loe

  _____  

From: Tom Hayden, Director of the Peace and Justice Resource Center
[mailto:contacthayden at gmail.com] 
Sent: Monday, February 15, 2010 2:58 PM
To: leeloe at igc.org
Subject: A Peace Strategy, 2010-2011




	

	
	



A PEACE STRATEGY, 2010-2011


Dear friends,

Over one thousand of you volunteered at this site to "take a leadership
role" in ending the Long War currently inflaming Afghanistan, Pakistan, and
Iraq.  That's really inspiring, especially at a time when so many believe
the peace movement is declining or dead.

Here at the PJRC we are exploring ways to implement communications with you
at local or regional levels, including a series of conference calls.

In the meantime, let me share some specific thoughts about building the
peace and justice movement from the bottom up.

Social movements always depend on leadership, a commitment by a single
individual or small group to continue their work in the face of all odds.
Then there's the question of a strategy for being effective. We always have
to measure our capacity against the goals we set.


PEOPLE POWER AGAINST THE PILLARS OF POLICY


The bottom-up strategy which I propose is building the pressure of people
power against the pillars of policy that prop up the Long War.

The key pillars for the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan include,
first, the pillar of public opinion; second, the pillar of budgetary
support; and third, the pillar of our military resources. Other pillars
include the mainstream media, religious institutions and, of course, the
required stability of America's ally Kabul.

In the end, it's about public opinion. We have to argue that the American
people are not any safer for having fought these wars, and we cannot afford
the cost in casualties and tax dollars.

After the death of 5,000 American soldiers and the expenditure of one
trillion dollars in tax money, on November 5, thirteen US soldiers were
killed inside Fort Hood by an American-born Muslim military psychiatrist of
Palestinian descent; and on Christmas Day, 300 Americans were nearly killed
in Detroit's airport by a Nigerian man whose own father warned us against.
The "war on terrorism" only spreads the terror and inflames future
terrorists.

Our policies do not make us safer, but play into the "plan to bleed America
to the point of bankruptcy" as described by Osama Bin Laden. [Bruce
Lawrence, ed., Messages to the World
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t7q3mVMEUzv
nYUIttlnuI240w0APhktQHtuWRqLyw0xhbVoQjr5U8SNo6ypKN9tFnIaoqAs9k7xqi9nTPrWSSJY
nkeyDP6T5dQrbTrTy-BVQmqpHdHCuwN29oYusmVNrp61KOUEeDKUyLIZfUavdnkVCDmjpcDugmDz
YwP4Aj2yqQkikwKZHLDeeaRK3k5os6zxWjuGuBSEoUHFTQSBIgdKK4vK5AyHoaIyMR1i_va6UtSD
nTi7dzy3aWzrfMxTs4Ea8Aqw0YZyMOuqDLS0ScooFTRkc4zSDoM-JzH7L6P3STWhibjjVAbUT6QZ
fjZyPKpYCYBQUH3QzukDqdjwKfGg_BKVa5Xs8HIPXEtfwP-D0R7y5bIXfKw6OdnNVx2OGqVSPcsX
kh8c4dE51pfAK_8KR-ee19yr4KWb5tpB_1QP5oIWNNep6bA8> , Verso, 2005, p. 243.]


1.    PUBLIC OPINION REMAINS DIVIDED.


The fear of terrorism and partisan loyalties keep American public opinion
divided. In a January CNN poll
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t6sw6C3h80R
hedJbWKhQEDTLcoiU-AZORVaoxWygxrVp_p4ojFz2fG-ndvD8Vw3pqpNRKPOtVVHIM-oDlCx3s7w
nRPt9cHqmWwxoa0W882D2icANBPHKq-2sv5r8iVjx0k=> , 55 percent ranked terrorism
as "extremely important", just behind the 61 percent who named the economy
and 58 percent unemployment. Our messaging should be guided towards
persuading the undecided and, in particular, solidifying the Democratic base
against the growing escalation.

Obama is having a hard time winning his own Democratic Party's support for
Afghanistan, which is why he linked the escalation with a pledge to begin
withdrawing in 2011. He is in danger of relying mainly on the Republicans as
his pillar of support. According to the NBC/WSJ poll
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t7ypCxAjZ-A
vh_OreRXccT47AKbFJ_PFlJiISSAmDEv7JpwBpa3ZafarWMZKli5VUHFr259O3yV0uEHWKL8WtkR
2Gm4-hbiQoa-rBzxS-aMVmqSzbbCKKGGPM224CIqMcLFaQ5xJZhE3Z2Lxt2ocl2203cVZ9pR7_w=
>  last month, 55 percent favored Obama's troop escalation while 49 percent
were opposed. The margin between those who think the President is right or
wrong was a tight 44-41.

Meanwhile support for any further involvement in Iraq is waning, with a CNN
poll
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t499q6oIFeB
uEmb8GuSSXsCJT53BP3xxprgD9bZ7duf9AI6ZhfmgGRevsbTIJREkchcHazN1xPCTjRSdHunc3iY
D9XwwNborpm9r0YUpeM1I1fm7MKcIo5W>  recently showed 60 percent in favor
withdrawal while 39 percent were opposed. As US troops leave, it will be
more difficult to re-escalate in the future.  


2.    AMERICAN FORCES ARE UNDER GROWING STRAIN, SUICIDE RATES HIGHER THAN
BATTLE DEATHS.


It should be startling that at least 334 members of the American military
services committed suicide in 2009, compared to 297 in Afghanistan and 144
in Iraq during the same period, according to a Congressional Quarterly
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t7Pq9Mqoh5l
xCX1a6qojqlv4I-xzu8lP7oIZaBdiT0BY8_t1nXNoRWh5Nox1i3uYBYrGaeVL4kpTYcE-syWNLh3
e_s0Jus4ecZ6XI3zhd0RS-caCsVjoFEURafiA86PztNerQYNNHdIwm2u2DMX7OLughuEqunlGOSh
arUVVNtExw==>  research project of Nov. 24, 2009.  In addition, reported
cases of depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder doubled
among American troops in Afghanistan between 2005 and 2009. [Sacramento Bee,
Nov. 13, 2009]

This suggests that counter-recruitment campaigns among parents and school
board members should continue to be a high priority, especially in
communities with high rates of military enlistment. Films like "The Hurt
Locker" should be widely screened.


3.    WAR BUDGET THREATENS OBAMA'S DOMESTIC PRIORITIES.


The White House is requesting $159 billion for Iraq-Afghanistan plus $33
billion for the recent troop escalation. The Congressional Budget Office
says that the overall cost now reaches $1.08 trillion, including $748
billion for Iraq, $340 billion for Afghanistan and $29 billion for "enhanced
security."

The Obama budget leaves "virtually no room for new domestic initiatives for
Mr. Obama or his successors" and could see the "country's influence around
the world eroded." [NYT
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t55lkWErm5u
J6zAMI8oYS_J1PKp_86Ul4510shBtbY_VnixK61-3j1RGn0soADVtygelMizxOfodTizoFcpcCCZ
EsfRMsiSoTexu1MIDWjRVCmvnbZDOv-DquzypxwWJ1lr6hqkxcGDiVhbZ-iBhnB4dwr6tg7VoDcY
HxCsIurzhg==> , Feb. 2, 2010] More data on budget trade-offs is available at
http://www.nationalpriorities.org
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t6OxdCAMcNK
nimP-_ociEvbpZfKJWn-SYSLjjxBbZ8MXqPf0aAIzLB4kIRArtQkK08uOcZ758lXPDLcK5a2zjul
fvf1rVBOSQEC1KOf0F9vMDMKm51I1vF3> .

This suggests that an imperative for the peace movement is
coalition-building with groups like seniors and labor affected by these
budget priorities. An example has been the year-long "Healthcare Not Warfare
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t68aSsvleIy
qZJ9ywSyHcqsdVMqQZSW37PiGKr_uQOUBUGJdhfq_IfVIPTGK40V9cd1yHpnWYXMGMqBREtmjRqk
SfgOxdbqmUTUT8WDkkyjzMSbLaYR-TWCABLgMHUstpSElc76UPjFvrSmrJyca4fvnT9IimQrD27A
xTc9Lp-d1w==> " campaign by the Progressive Democrats of America with the
California Nurses Association. There currently are no similar links with
environmental or inner-city organizations.


4.    DYING FOR KARZAI?


The foundational pillar of the whole Afghanistan occupation is the
discredited regime of Hamid Karzai, officially accused of having stolen the
recent presidential election and presently unable to stage parliamentary
elections. Neither Western public opinion nor the 140,000 American, Canadian
and European soldiers can justify - or seriously reform - the Karzai regime.
The paradox is that Karzai, for his own reasons, has been pushing against US
pressure to initiate talks with the Taliban, a proposal for which he
recently received $500 million at the London conference on Afghanistan. In
this case, the pillar [read: client] may actually be shifting its own center
of gravity in response to Afghan opinion, and American dismay.

There are other pillars that require our pressure, too. For example, many
religious, human rights and lawyers' organizations have taken a strong stand
against torture, but have focused on Guantanamo rather than Bagram, and
generally avoided opposing the wars themselves. For another example, the
movement should rely on the blogosphere but also engage editors and
reporters from the mainstream media in critical discussion of their
coverage. There are few, if any, op-ed pieces against the wars by peace
movement advocates. 

It will be up to the peace movement to "ripen" other important issues that
have been kept from public attention. The most notable are the rapid
escalations of night-raids by US Special Ops teams and the CIA's drone
attacks which arouse massive hatred among the Muslim population. ["CIA
Expanding Presence in
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t4RnUbGS8h4
qrN44IxIuBh-soZWpcaD-y-hIevBnizXk3CarXMFIOYDbqV78KUJrJRbXEo_-hiAuPyEU8bFWr9j
ftLQf2nUwRJ_8oc2VknU0hQlg7ShEBiim9vAAAJ7ZG1dHRv4hgIuCOn_AjYI87aTn4Vee2H7Kpya
L0AHGQNPvA==> Afghanistan", LA Times, Sept. 20, 2009; Jane Mayer, "The
Predator War
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t7FcHWZyIyd
Cl0hYtVWYlEsNuR6_ky_M2zPcR4ashNeFBpQ2F7uX2VBeeJLL3jB-cpphRq4vn2pZy-vuOUHE1Id
6yf-ZxQp28wC2ju-AhkVcUk54JydjF4fKGDmnAnAiwGW8d45VXHoYkCIh5l62xzo4ujU_uQBA874
4juCFwDSww==> ", The New Yorker]


ORGANIZATIONAL CAPACITY-BUILDING


It takes leadership to break out of our zones of comfort and engage people
who may be undecided or even hostile. But that is how a base of power is
built. There are no shortcuts. It takes practice until outreach is an
everyday habit.

Online organizing is a vital part of the process. I salute groups who
succeed online by savvy mass marketing techniques, but I have found the most
effective way to gather email addresses is one-by-one, on yellow tablets.
It's best to build an online grass-roots network through the canvassing and
recruitment of a local organization. A small committed group can use mass
messaging as an effective tactic, not a substitute for a core group.

A list of likeminded teachers from the same public school and PTA is the
best way to build a counter-recruitment movement. Anyone who can build a
committed online network of political activists and voters in a
Congressional district will gain leverage with politicians. Anyone who can
stir up anti-war petitions among rank-and-file activists at Democratic state
conventions will have an effect on the party power elites. Anyone able to
make the difference with targeted mail in a close legislative race can be a
game-changer.


ENDING THE LONG WAR


Thanks to peace advocates and the sheer cost of the undertaking, the
fifty-year Long War is being successfully challenged already. This is the
doctrine which arose among many defense intellectuals around 2004, notably
David Kilcullen and especially the neo-conservatives. They project at least
a fifty-year continuous war against Islamic revolutionaries across the
globe.

The concept was implicitly rejected by President Obama at his December 1,
2009 West Point speech when he said, "That's why our troop commitment cannot
be open-ended, because the nation that I'm most interested in building is
our own."

The neo-cons and many Republicans will fiercely oppose ending the Long War
before achieving the mirage they call "victory." They may try to block
Obama's plan to withdraw all troops from Iraq by 2012, and his current plan
to "begin" withdrawing from Afghanistan in July 2011.

The peace movement can be an important factor in shaping a climate pushing
Obama to exit two wars - Iraq and Afghan-Pakistan - by 2012. If the peace
movement is splintered and weak, there will be no pressure on Congress or
the president to withdraw, only pressure to continue with endless wars. Even
Obama's own appointees, Robert Gates and Hillary Clinton, immediately began
qualifying the president's pledge the week after he announced it.

With Afghanistan, activists in local Congressional Districts, should be
building widespread support now for Rep. Barbara Lee's HR 3699
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t5BDx5fW1gc
Vzrj__UAL8NVqGYoDRIvYfe405lvxljrBgZqP_8SsiRpSLm4OKnUd6vGvSKAtqSEBCaw7jBnCf47
aZxwM0V4vG4SLzeNLk3WCQky0PujGJONZ4BWHc38kXuVFza53HT_rSz6EqY6Vo7u> , cutting
$33 billion in funding for the troop escalation. There also may be a
Congressional action on Rep. Dennis Kucinich's "privileged resolution"
forcing a vote on Afghanistan and Pakistan, as required under the War Powers
Act.

The Congressional vote on funding the escalation presumably will fail,
turning it into an exercise in learning how many Democrats will stand up. It
will be revealing, for example, whether the escalation funding will depend
primarily on Republicans. More important is whether and when the Democrats
will offer significant peace amendments to the funding authorization, or
back down and surrender the initiative to the White House and Pentagon.

Congressional progressives have to play a role in helping the peace movement
grow at district levels.

For starters, the progressives in Congress could initiate hearings on Rep.
Jim McGovern's HR 2404
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t6KEihUg_Dq
aF32rngbQkc1dpH5tm9XeHMlNUMZ7LmaUAaWJU8y89sINEE_Of1f-1N52EY42kgs29Xci4Xsi1X7
2RKlp8-a6Wd82FvDXyZa-OM1yqcFILUl9TBCjDH3kk0Ja4mcvIRO9n2tIzEiWsXl> , a
non-binding resolution requiring that the Pentagon report on its exit
strategy. It's time for clear debate and discussion about a negotiated
settlement. Just as the President has decided to televise discussions on
health care, he should be made to encourage open discussion on getting out
of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, with voices of the peace movement
present.


CONDITIONS ON FUNDING


Amendments to the appropriations bill that would make a real difference, if
introduced soon enough to draw public support, should include, in order of
priority:

[1] a requirement of a diplomatic surge in negotiations leading to an
Afghanistan power-sharing plan, including the Taliban;
[2] inclusion of a definite timeline for withdrawal of US and NATO forces
from Afghanistan as part of the settlement package;
[3] enforceable guarantees that Afghan detainees will have lawyers and human
rights protection in both the new Kabul facility and local detention
facilities funded or operated by the US.


HEARINGS ON DRONE ATTACKS


Separate hearings and legislation should be organized to draw attention to
the counter-productive effects of drone strikes [antagonizing civilian
populations, destabilizing Pakistan, blowback on CIA personnel]. It is a
disaster that both parties in Washington are fostering the illusion that the
strikes are cost-free.

Additionally, members of Congress can be of great service to their peace
constituencies by sending out informational mailings to voters and making
floor speeches on such issues as detention policies, demanding independent
statistics about Afghanistan civilian casualties, opposing the secret
pre-emptive war now underway in Pakistan, and revealing the occasional
eye-popping story [the CIA has provided Viagra to warlords, for example - LA
Times
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103049277923&s=2582&e=001zTrWt9yB8t79kQfbsW87
mAQpwJX0ntlY29H7321933u25jN9EReVIKhh3RZuW9EETSTjxEXLxqgGqx6rBefPr7CKo8dcD-ev
6PXKXHLAPjCZpcSgRu45BXuy2Jl7bjfCjZfcbg12tbG6JDzP8A4FrHLNFciw7kljr1z2sNw5PY-o
kosA3nOdRF8NAYx8p3Ll> , Sept. 20, 2009, 31st paragraph, one line]. 


FORUMS TO RETHINK THE AL QAEDA THREAT


Obama has tried to narrow the US military objective to "destroying" and
"derailing" al Qaeda, a goal that has strong popular support, but may be
heading into a cul-de-sac of his own making. Serious think tanks, joined
perhaps with members of the armed services committees, need to generate a
strategic rethinking of terrorism. If "Al Qaeda" has spread from Afghanistan
to Pakistan, to Yemen and Somalia, to the cities of Europe, and if suicide
bombers arise not from psychosis but from US occupation of Muslim lands [as
Robert Pape shows], isn't the military "solution" making the problem worse?
And if the terrorist agenda is a political one, as argued by the CIA's top
Bin Laden tracker, Michael Scheuer, shouldn't America explore alternatives
to dogmatic support of the Israeli occupation and the police states in
Saudia Arabia and Egypt?  And Even Kilcullen writes that "our too-willing
and heavy-handed interventions in the so-called War on Terrorism to date
have largely played into the hands of the AQ [Al Qaeda] exhaustion
strategy." But who will do the heavy lifting to cause the paradigm shift?
Since the political will doesn't exist, the change will come either from
future avoidable catastrophes or from generating alternative approaches on
the outside.


MARK YOUR CALENDARS


The Obama plan - escalate for 18 months, then begin to de-escalate - gives
the peace movement a virtual calendar for the battles ahead. The Afghanistan
funding debate will continue for the next few months, with members of
Congress looking over their shoulders at constituents while the November
election nears. The US military surge will peak this summer, leading to an
unpredictable outcome for the generals and politicians. The neo-con and
Republican lobbies will oppose virulently any Obama beginning of withdrawal
in 2011, perhaps with counter-pressure in the wings from a Senator like Russ
Feingold who supports a withdrawal timetable if Obama delays. The outcome of
these events will be central to the next presidential election, which
realistically begins in 2011.

The politics could be 2008 all over again, with a brutal military escalation
["surge"] followed by an election debate over whether to withdraw troops
from Afghanistan and Iraq. In 2006 and 2008, the peace movement and public
opinion were huge factors in dumping the Republican Congress and electing
Barack Obama.  

History rarely repeats. By now the President and the Democratic majority
have disenchanted much of the peace and justice constituency, while the
conservative counter-movement is riding high. If Obama and the Democrats
cannot bring back the peace vote in great numbers, the presidency and
Congress are in serious jeopardy. Mere verbal promises of peace will ring
hollow unless coupled with action.

I was speaking on a Chicago panel with a former US general recently, an
intelligent man who predicted gloomily [from his viewpoint] that the US has
only three years to "fix" Afghanistan "before Obama surrenders to the peace
movement."

I told the general that was the best prediction I'd heard all evening, but
it remained to be seen if it was accurate. 






Be prepared for the battle of memory!  A complete dateline for all the
protests of the '60s is available in Tom Hayden's The Long Sixties.  You can
receive a free autographed copy of the book for a tax-deductible donation of
$25 or higher to the Peace and Justice Resource Center. 



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