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<FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>From:</B> PACUSA@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:PACUSA@yahoogroups.com] <B>On Behalf Of
</B>CharlieChimp1@aol.com<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 11, 2007 3:38
AM<BR><B>To:</B> al-awda-london@yahoogroups.com; pmwatch@yahoogroups.com;
pacusa@yahoogroups.com; Al-Awda@yahoogroups.com; efreepalestine@yahoogroups.com;
al-awda-universalist@umich.edu<BR><B>Subject:</B> [PACUSA] Time to say no(for
Arab "moderates")<BR></FONT><BR></DIV>
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<DIV>"It is mistaken to believe that what is happening in Iraq, Lebanon and
Palestine are civil wars or even the beginning of civil wars. They are political
conflicts fuelled by the US-Israeli drive for regional hegemony."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>It is time for those co-operating,<WBR>colluding with US/Israel to face
reality. Hopefully, the unity government agreement is confirmation that
Abbas(and the Saudi rulers) have done so.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Chris </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<H1>Time to say no</H1>
<DIV id=lead>To continue kowtowing to the US administration'<WBR>s demands over
Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine would be suicidal, writes <B>Hassan
Nafaa</B><A href="http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/print/2007/831/op2.htm#1">*</A>
</DIV>
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<P>Gaping wounds in some of the most sensitive areas of the Arab world, most
notably in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine, have begun to suppurate. The current
American administration, headed by a clique of anti-Arab Islamophobes, will stop
at nothing, out of deference to Israel and commitment to the Christian-Zionist
preaching in which they believe so fervently. This same administration believes
the fact that neither the president's nor the vice-president'<WBR>s running for
re-election gives them greater freedom of movement, at least until the electoral
campaigns officially kick-off in February a year from now. Until then they will
steamroll through measures in an attempt to complete an enterprise refuse to
admit they have failed. And such is the catatonic stupor into which Arab regimes
have fallen that they are prepared to allow the same doctor who caused the
disease to treat their wounds.</P>
<P>Two factors forced Bush to re-adjust his policy and plans for Iraq and the
region. The Baker- Hamilton report, drafted by a joint Democratic- Republican
commission, concluded the administration'<WBR>s policy was a fiasco and demanded
changes. Then, the Republicans lost their majority in both houses of Congress
just as the growing anti-war movement was reminding the American public of the
failings of the Vietnam era. In response, Bush dug in his heels. Instead of
cooperating with Iran and Syria to restore an element of calm in order to pave
the way for an honourable withdrawal, as the Baker-Hamilton report recommended,
he did the opposite, ordering 20,000 more US troops to Iraq, two aircraft
carriers to the Gulf, and furnishing his friends in the neighbourhood with
anti-missile defence systems. Such moves were obviously in preparation for a
military strike against Iran and the tightening of the siege around Syria, yet
Bush was confident of his allies' support. Just in case, though, he sent
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on another tour of the region.</P>
<P>Here was the envoy of supposedly the greatest democracy on earth appealing to
foreign friends in order to tip the scale of American public opinion back in
favour of the executive after Congress had won the first round. The close
observer might have detected Rice's inward sneer as she discovered how
immeasurably more malleable decision-makers in this part of the world are than
lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Certainly she shed no tears. Quite the opposite: she
was delighted, full of confidence, pleased to see eight Arab foreign ministers
climbing over one another in Kuwait to declare their support for America's "new"
plans for Iraq and for the region. She had grounds for her confidence. She
knows, after all, that she is the only person capable of getting this number of
Arab foreign ministers to meet in any place she designates, in the Arab world or
abroad, at the snap of her fingers. Perhaps, too, she felt a measure of
malicious glee as she watched them fight to win her favour, in the full
knowledge that while each and everyone of them is a member of the Arab League
they would never come together on their own initiative in order to develop an
independent policy to further their common interests.</P>
<P>When the rush of Arab governments to support an American policy that American
society itself deplores stirred angry reactions among sectors of Arab public
opinion, various diplomatic quarters tried to stem the damage. Some Arab foreign
ministers, for example, tried to convey the impression that their support was
qualified, that it was contingent upon results on the ground. </P>
<P>It was hardly convincing. Governments generally formulate policies on the
basis of considerations and expectations that have not yet been put to the test.
When other governments come out in support of those policies they are committing
themselves, as partners, to working for its success regardless of what the
future may bring. And just as they anticipate sharing the fruits of the policy,
should it succeed, they must also be prepared to sustain their share of losses
should it fail.</P>
<P>The Bush plan entails actions hostile to both Iran and Syria. To support it
is to side unequivocally against these two countries. The same applies to the
fact that the plan is opposed by the majority of the American people, not to
mention powers such as China, Russia and the EU.</P>
<P>Bush's reckless adventurism is well known and the tide of opposition to his
policy will swell further, both at home and abroad. While this makes failure
even more likely it will not forestall the disasters that will undoubtedly be
inflicted on Arabs and Muslims. So certain is the prognosis that it is only
possible to wonder at the considerations upon which Arab regimes base their
support of US policy. The most obvious premises for their behaviour are probably
the right ones: first, they think Iran's expansionist designs more dangerous
than the Zionist version, and second, they believe the need to placate the US in
order to sustain their strategic relationships with Washington outstrips all
other regional and international considerations.</P>
<P>Without underestimating the potential threat to the Arab world of Iran's
growing power and influence, it is impossible to accept this presents a greater
peril than the Zionist enterprise. The best way for the Arabs to confront
Tehran's regional power bid is not to fall in with US-Israeli plans to strike
Iran but to establish a unified Arab policy towards Iran. This would involve
opening a dialogue with Tehran, to which end they would have to rely on Syria. A
strike against Iran, by the US and/or Israel, may weaken Iran temporarily but it
will not strengthen the hand of any Arab power. It could easily plunge the
entire region into a state of chaos, triggering any number of local civil wars
if not a full-fledged regional war. </P>
<P>Arab leaders who believed the claims that ridding Iraq of Saddam Hussein
would eliminate one of the greatest impediments to regional stability should
look at what has in fact been eliminated. It is Iraq as a state that has been
destroyed. And who, apart from Iran and Israel, has gained from the catastrophe
that has befallen Iraq? Does it not also follow that the sole beneficiary of any
war against Iran will be Israel, for whom the destruction of Iran would come as
the most crucial step towards realising Israel's dream of re-organising the
Middle East into disparate sectarian-based statelets as it transforms itself
into the engineer of their multi-farious rivalries and alliances? </P>
<P>As important as the strategic relationship with the US might be, Arab leaders
should realise that Bush and his gang of neo-conservatives are not synonymous
with the United States. They are a band of thugs bent on steering the world to
unmitigated disaster, a fact grasped by the majority of the American people upon
whom it has dawned that this administration is no less fanatical and racist than
Hitler and the Nazis. Nor can a strategic relationship be founded upon handing
over the determination of the fates of our peoples to the White House,
regardless of whether its incumbent is a Democrat or Republican, an extremist or
moderate. The US is a mighty power and acts as mighty powers mostly do: it
respects the strong and crushes the weak once it can dispense with their
services. When will Arab rulers open their eyes to the reality that their
current weakness and disarray is hastening the day when the US finds them too
much of a burden and drops them? When will they realise that they will never be
able to make the transition from a dependent to a partner or build a strategic
relationship that is truly mutually beneficent until they demonstrate their
ability to effectively play what few cards they have left to their
advantage?</P>
<P>Would it be excessive to suggest that the current crisis offers Arab
countries that are on good terms with the US a rare opportunity to regain some
of their forfeited leverage? I don't think so. This is one of those paradoxes of
the current situation though to capitalise on it the ruling elites -- contrary
to what they seem to believe -- must summon the resolve to convey to Bush a
resounding no, and then enter immediately into talks with Iran, Syria and,
perhaps, Turkey. Such a dialogue would seek to promote a range of interrelated
objectives: an end to the internecine bloodshed in Palestine, the creation of a
national unity government and the immediate lifting of the economic blockade on
the Palestinian people; an end to the Lebanese crisis by pressuring rival
parties to return to the negotiation table with the purpose of resolving their
differences and safeguarding Lebanese independence while simultaneously ensuring
Syria's security requirements; a reconciliation between rival Iraqi factions so
as to preserve Iraq's territorial integrity and set in motion a new political
process that will lead to a government that represents Iraqis regardless of
sectarian affiliations; establishing channels of communication and dialogue with
US leaders opposed to Bush's policies in order to generate pressure for an
international conference, in which all concerned parties take part, the purpose
of which is to resolve, in tandem, all the interconnected crises in the Middle
East, and to establish agreed-upon systems for collective and humanitarian
security so as to ensure the settlements are acceptable regionally and
internationally.</P>
<P>It is mistaken to believe that what is happening in Iraq, Lebanon and
Palestine are civil wars or even the beginning of civil wars. They are political
conflicts fuelled by the US-Israeli drive for regional hegemony. </P>
<P><A name=1></A><I>* The writer is a professor of political science at Cairo
University.</I> </P><!-- /STORY --><!-- right block -->
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